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Wagering on Patrick Mahomes without having faith in him

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It’s a holiday week, which in the land of Scumbags means drinking enough Michelob Ultra to construct a proper aluminum Christmas tree (and maybe even get your blood alcohol level up to a .06!), grilling various meats in 30 degree weather while wearing shorts and, of course, laying a few clandestine bets while the rest of the family watches Elf for the third time in two days.

We’re nearing the end of the regular season, which means the Rhode Island Scumbag — our resident expert handicapper — and I are nearing the end of our year-long wager. And, true to tradition, his late-season slump has given me the chance to take the lead when it comes to both overall win percentage and profitability.

There’s still plenty of time for that to change, and he’s got a pair of big bets aimed at swinging the momentum back in his favor. Will it work? All Scumbag analysis is in blockquotes below. My bets follow.

AP Photo/Matt Ludtke

Keep it simple. The better team, at home, getting minimal points.

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

I have no faith in Patrick Mahomes, but he should be able to handle Cincinnati.

Scumbag locks last week: 1-1 (.500), -2 units
Scumbag locks year to date: 30-22-1 (.577), +8.8 units

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

The Dolphins only have one win against a team with a winning record and that came at home. Now they get a Ravens team that just baffled Brock Purdy with pressure and coverage. And they get them on the road. Feels like there’s value in taking Baltimore at only three points.

The Bears have been quietly great recently. Not offensively, mind you, but that defense since Week 10 has been better than anyone in the NFL except the Dolphins (quietly rethinks Ravens pick, shrugs).

via rbsdm.com

And hey, the Falcons’ defense has been pretty good in that stretch as well, so betting the under makes sense, too.

Non-scumbag locks last week: 2-0 (1.000), +2 units
Non-scumbag locks year to date: 37-16-4 (.698), +21 units

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