(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

DraftKings Sportsbook betting splits: 73 percent of bets, 61 percent of money on Texans +9.5

Oddsmaker insight (Wed.): We opened Ravens -9.5 and a total of 46. Right now, the total is down to 43.5. It might be windy there. Obviously Houston put up a ton of points last week against a good defense, and the Texans have seen most of the moneyline play. There’s certainly some recency bias from the public. Most of the public money on Texans spread and ML. Small under action.

Pick: Texans +9.5

“Lamar Jackson is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or more points the last three seasons. I prefer to bet the Ravens in underdog role or as small favorites, and I like to fade them as big home favorites. C.J. Stroud played with a lot of confidence and Texans are a young team on a roll. Sometimes I think the long layoff can be a negative factor. Some handicappers think rest can be a positive, but several Baltimore starters now haven’t played in almost three weeks — I consider that a negative. The Ravens also aren’t a great team playing from behind — if they come out rusty or slow, it could be problematic.” — Matt Youmans, VSiN host

Pick: Texans +9.5

“The Ravens were 9.5-point favorites at home against these same Texans in their Week 1 matchup. Baltimore opened the season with a comfortable 25-9 victory over Houston, in the first start of the year for Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who was sacked five times and lost a fumble. However, the Texans only trailed 7-6 at halftime on the road of that Week 1 contest.

“Houston is a completely different team and are coming off a 45-14 home thrashing of Cleveland, a team that entered with a comparable defense to Baltimore. The Texans kept Stroud free from pressure all day, allowing zero sacks with no turnovers against a Browns team that totaled three sacks with two interceptions just three weeks earlier.

“Houston’s offensive line is playing its best football of the season after starting the year in shambles, and has allowed three total sacks over the past three games. While the Ravens have averaged four sacks per game at home this season, I think the Texans will be up to the task.

“The Texans’ defensive strength matches up well with Baltimore’s offensive preference to run the ball. Houston ranks second-best in run defense DVOA, only trailing Detroit this season; the Ravens rank first overall with a 50.3% run rate this season. If Houston can limit Baltimore’s rushing production and put more pressure on Lamar Jackson to attack the Texans through the air, their chances to earn a huge road win drastically increase.

“Our FTN Model has Houston +9.5 with an 11.4% edge, equating to a 63.8% change of winning.” — Mike Randle, Chief Content Officer at FTN Network