Phillies fans are getting restless.
It’s no surprise; Dave Dombrowski has made some huge additions in each of the past two offseasons, signing All-Stars Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Trea Turner. This year, however, the team’s big star signing was fairly anticlimactic. It’s great that Aaron Nola isn’t going anywhere, but re-signing Nola doesn’t make the Phillies any better.
Yet truth be told, Philadelphia doesn’t have many places to improve. After all, we’re talking about a team that has reached the NLCS in back-to-back years. They may not be the Braves or the Dodgers, but they’re easily the third-best team in the National League.
The Phillies have five starters for the rotation. They could use some more depth, but they don’t need to go out and sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell – no matter what the rumor mill would have you believe.
They also have a lineup filled with talented players from one to nine. Dombrowski could add a piece in the outfield, but Johan Rojas plays a strong enough center field that the Phils don’t have to upgrade unless they make the right deal with the right player.
That leaves the bullpen as the only obvious place for a major free agent acquisition. The Phillies already have one of the nastiest arm barns in baseball, replete with dominant back-end talent and serviceable minor league depth. Still, they have one or two Opening Day bullpen spots up for grabs.
Here’s an approximation of what the Phillies bullpen would look like if the season started tomorrow:
| Pitcher | 2023 Key Stats | 2024 Steamer Projections |
| José Alvarado (LHP) | 41.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 1.3 fWAR | 3.02 ERA, 1.2 WAR |
| Seranthony Domínguez | 50 IP, 3.78 ERA, 0.1 fWAR | 3.95 ERA, 0.6 WAR |
| Gregory Soto (LHP) | 60.1 IP, 4.62 ERA, 0.9 fWAR | 3.60 ERA, 0.6 WAR |
| Jeff Hoffman | 52.1 IP, 2.41 ERA, 1.5 fWAR | 3.87 ERA, 0.6 WAR |
| Matt Strahm (LHP) | 54.1 IP (relief), 2.82 ERA, 0.9 fWAR | 3.54 ERA, 0.8 WAR |
| Orion Kerkering | MiLB: 53.2 IP, 1.51 ERA, 79 K | 3.74 ERA, 0.6 WAR |
| Dylan Covey | 43 IP, 3.77 ERA, 0.0 fWAR | 4.30 ERA, 0.2 WAR |
| Andrew Bellatti | 24.2 IP, 5.11 ERA, 0.1 fWAR | 4.42 ERA, 0.2 WAR |
| AdditionAL Depth | ||
| Yunior Marte | 39.1 IP, 5.03 ERA, 0.2 fWAR | 4.11 ERA, 0.3 WAR |
| Connor Brogdon | 28.1 IP, 4.13 ERA, -0.1 fWAR | 4.39 ERA, 0.1 WAR |
| Luis F. Ortiz | 19 IP, 3.32 ERA, 0.2 fWAR | 4.32 ERA, 0.1 WAR |
| Nick Nelson | MiLB: 20 GS, 97.1 IP, 4.35 ERA | 63 IP, 4.79 ERA, 0.3 fWAR |
| José Ruiz | 44.1 IP, 5.89 ERA, -0.6 fWAR | 21 IP, 4.31 ERA, 0.1 fWAR |
Barring an injury, those first six spots – from Alvarado to Kerkering – are set in stone. Dylan Covey was surprisingly effective in a mop-up role last season, but he’s out of options, so the Phillies shouldn’t be afraid to cut him and his $850,000 salary if a better option is available.
More importantly, though, Philadelphia can’t go into 2024 with Andrew Bellatti (or Yunior Marte/Connor Brogdon/etc.) on the Opening Day roster. Bellatti was terrific in 2022, but whatever magic beans he was using lost their powers this past season:
| Season | ERA | XERA | FIP | XFIP | FWAR |
| 2022 | 3.31 | 3.64 | 2.87 | 3.37 | 1.0 |
| 2023 | 5.11 | 5.00 | 4.80 | 4.97 | 0.1 |
Simply put, the Phillies can’t just wait around for Bellatti to figure things out – they’ve already tried that. It’s a similar story with Connor Brogdon, who looked like a shell of his former self in 2023.
Thus, if nothing else, the Phillies need a better solution for that final spot in the bullpen.
And this is where Jordan Hicks enters the picture.
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