The Bears finished 2023 with one of the league’s hottest defenses. They added a quarterback drafted first overall in a stacked class for passers. Caleb Williams and new addition D’Andre Swift both began to come online around Week 4, where they beat an overwhelmed Matthew Stafford in a 24-18 home victory.
Despite all these points in Chicago’s favor, it still ended up barely favored in games against two of the league’s worst teams. In Week 5, that meant a 3.5-point spread before a 36-10 dismantling of the Carolina Panthers. In Week 6, the line flipped back and forth between the Bears and a Jacksonville Jaguars team that had recorded its first win a week earlier.
And so, Chicago went out and proved oddsmakers wrong. Again.
Williams shined once again against a bad defense and the Bears improved to 4-2 despite injuries that sapped them of key players throughout the secondary. There’s going to be plenty of praise for the young passer this week after a four-touchdown performance — which was nearly five if not for an overturned fourth quarter toss to D.J. Moore ruled short of the goal line. We’ll get there, but let’s start with the guys who are making this all possible.
The offensive line that allowed its rookie QB to be sacked 13 times in a 1-2 start has given up only seven sacks the last three weeks — not coincidentally, three wins. Swift averaged 1.8 yards per carry en route to 68 rushing yards to start his Chicago career. In the three games since he’s run for 257 yards on 54 handoffs for 4.8 yards per rush.
Some of that success has been the result of a clock-grinding strategy late in wins against tired defenses, but Swift is thriving in space. The dancing and jukes that can be headaches behind the line of scrimmage are a lot more tolerable when he’s five-plus yards downfield and accelerating into chaos.
Hell yeah.
Of course, that merely set the stage. Williams got up there and danced all over it.
As the throw above suggests, Williams’ near-80 percent completion rate wasn’t the product of wide open windows (though these certainly existed). He thrived behind a playbook loaded with short passes. While he didn’t do much in the deep range, he completed eight of eight passes on throws that traveled between nine and 19 yards downfield — with FOUR touchdowns.
Williams made the correct read and put the ball where it needed to be on a regular basis. He proved he could not only play within offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s structure but fill it to the brim with big throws. He also proved he’s willing to exhaust every option on his play sheet before escaping the pocket… where he’s also devastating.
This is remarkable, even if it may not be sustainable. Williams has seven touchdown passes over his last three wins, but they came against the NFL’s three worst defenses in terms of DVOA and expected points allowed per dropback. Weeks 4 through 6 weren’t a challenge for Chicago, they were a launching pad.
But hooooooo buddy, Williams took off. He gets a bye and then the league’s 26th-ranked pass defense to bump his hype train up to unsafe speeds before November hits.
