The previous holiday week saw a brief increase in prop pick respectability. The 4-2 record in official plays is not quite the success the writer was hoping for, but it marks three consecutive weeks over .500 and a chance to return to being roughly as useful as a coin flip.

The writer acknowledges their shortcomings this year.

Let’s see if this modest momentum can be maintained. All official plays are in bold, while the writer’s leans follow.

Sam Howell OVER 263.5 passing yards. The Commanders throw a lot due to frequent losses, and Howell has thrown for at least 300 yards in four of his last five games. He will likely be tasked with mounting a comeback against the Miami Dolphins.

Will Levis UNDER 216.5 passing yards. Dealing with an ankle injury and not having reached over 200 yards in any of his last three games.

Jordan Love OVER 227.5 passing yards. The writer is buying into his mid-season improvement.

Pat Freiermuth UNDER 31.5 receiving yards. Despite seeing a strong performance in last week’s game, the Cardinals are unlikely to be surprised by Freiermuth’s route tree and have allowed just 37.5 yards per game to tight ends this season.

Cooper Kupp UNDER 56.5 receiving yards. Kupp has averaged 25 yards per game over the last five weeks and faces a tough defensive matchup against the Cleveland Browns.

Najee Harris OVER 54.5 rushing yards. He played a significant role in the Steelers’ new offense last week and now faces an Arizona Cardinals team that gives up 4.5 yards per carry, which is 26th-best in the NFL.

Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 62.5 rushing yards. He’s been the focal point of the Patriots offense given the team’s quarterback situation.

Last week: 4-2 (.667)
Season to date: 43-49 (.467)

Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

These are the bets I like … just not enough to officially include in the section above.

• Desmond Ridder OVER 174.5 passing yards. The writer doesn’t love the defensive matchup, but this has been a total Ridder hit early in the season.
• Isiah Pacheco UNDER 66.5 rushing yards. Normally taking overs when it comes to rushing totals vs. the Packers, but this is a large number for a player whose carries fluctuate significantly.
• Courtland Sutton OVER 56.5 receiving yards. Sutton has received 22 targets over the last three weeks and has become the Broncos’ top target again.

Last week: 1-1 (.500)
Season to date: 24-23 (.511)

Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside.