One week after scoring 36 points on a tough Cleveland Browns defense, the Los Angeles Rams are set to play an equally stout Baltimore Ravens defense in Week 14.
One major difference between this game and the last, however, is Baltimore has an offense equally if not more capable of exploding for 30-plus points. So, the Rams won’t be cruising to an easy win in the same way they did against Cleveland.
Even with two top-flight offenses taking the field, though, the total for this game is just 40.5 points — a number the last two Rams games have exceeded and four of the last six Ravens games have.
Here’s a look at that game and a couple more lines I disagree with in Week 14, with odds from BetMGM.
AP Photo/Kyusung Gong
OK, so yes, Baltimore’s defense could be an impediment to the Rams extending their streak of scoring 35-plus points to three straight games. But that defense has taken a step back in recent games, falling to 13th in expected points added since Week 10, according to rbsdm, so there’s reason to believe LA can at least come close to its 22-point season average.
More importantly, LA’s defense is not good. Though it’s been better recently against some of the NFL’s worst offenses, the defense still ranks just 19th in defensive DVOA, according to FTNFantasy. Coming out of their bye, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens should be able to exploit that and come close to eclipsing 30 points for the sixth time in their last seven games, making 40.5 an easy total to cover. This line is way too low.
AP Photo/Matt Durisko
The Patriots are terrible. There’s really no need for us to belabor that fact. But you know who else is terrible? The Arizona Cardinals, and the Steelers just lost to them while being held to 10 points. So forgive me if I’m not willing to lay five points on Pittsburgh against any NFL team, especially not as they’re preparing to start a backup quarterback.
Mitchell Trubisky may ultimately find a way to win this game, but we just saw the Pats hold Justin Herbert and the Chargers to six points. So, it’s also completely possible the Steelers struggle to move the ball and lose. I have no clue which way it’ll go, but in a Thursday night game with one of the lowest totals in forever, the spread should be closer to one point than five.
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
I’ll keep this one short, because what are we even doing here? I understand it’s a divisional road game for the Lions against a Bears team that very nearly beat them three weeks ago, but it’s still the Lions playing the Bears. As bad as Detroit’s defense has been the last few games, it’s still going to be a surprise if they win this game by anything less than a touchdown.
Even the Week 11 game that required Detroit to mount a furious comeback to beat Chicago ended with a final margin of five points. I expect the added familiarity to benefit the better team here, not the one playing for draft picks.
Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside.
