Tua Tagovailoa is currently slated to become a free agent in 2025, a situation that is not typical for the NFL’s reigning passing yardage leader. However, there are various ways to address this issue. The Miami Dolphins could opt to negotiate a long-term contract extension with the quarterback they selected fifth overall in the draft. This deal would likely cost around $275 million over five years, with a $200 million guarantee, similar to Trevor Lawrence’s contract with another Florida team. Alternatively, the Dolphins could allow Tagovailoa to play out the 2024 season, knowing they have the option to use the franchise tag to retain him for the following year for roughly $40 million guaranteed. They could then use the franchise tag again in 2026 for $48 million. This approach is not uncommon, as demonstrated by the Washington Commanders’ handling of Kirk Cousins.
2024 could be a defining year for Tagovailoa as an NFL quarterback. While he has shown the ability to be an above-average passer and lead Miami to the playoffs, his performance in crucial postseason games remains uncertain. Tagovailoa has a solid record as a regular season starter, with a winning record and only one playoff appearance to date. However, his Wild Card start in 2023 against the Kansas City Chiefs was lackluster, raising questions about his ability to perform under pressure.
Despite his statistical success in the regular season, Tagovailoa’s performance against top-tier teams has been inconsistent. His record against playoff-bound teams raises doubts about his ability to elevate his game in important matchups. The decision on whether to invest in Tagovailoa long-term is further complicated by the fact that the team’s success seems to hinge heavily on his presence as a starter.
Miami could look to Kirk Cousins’ career trajectory as a cautionary tale when considering Tagovailoa’s future. Cousins, a Pro Bowl quarterback with impressive numbers, has only one playoff victory to his name despite consistent regular season success. Washington’s decision to let Cousins leave for the Minnesota Vikings after failing to advance in the postseason may serve as a point of reference for the Dolphins.
There are multiple options for Miami to handle Tagovailoa’s contract situation, ranging from tagging him for one season to exploring trade options or signing an incentive-based deal. The team’s head coach, Mike McDaniel, appears confident in Tagovailoa’s abilities and is determined to support him with a strong roster of playmakers. However, concerns about the team’s aging defensive core and potential challenges in adapting to opponents’ defensive strategies could impact Tagovailoa’s performance in the upcoming season.
Ultimately, 2024 could be a pivotal year for Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, as it may determine his value as a franchise quarterback. The team’s success moving forward could hinge on Tagovailoa’s ability to deliver in crucial moments and lead the team to postseason success. Regardless of the outcome, the Dolphins are likely to provide entertaining football for their fans in the upcoming season.
