HomeFootball DirtIs trusting Miles Sanders a foolish decision?

Is trusting Miles Sanders a foolish decision?

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For a while there we were climbing back toward .500. Then it turns out I’m wildly unable to gauge quarterback performances, so we lost money last week.

Yep, Justin Fields and Will Levis both went over what I’d thought were too-high totals and Jordan Love fell off in a bad way to make me 0-3 in passing props and 6-2 everywhere else, keeping me unprofitable for the year with only four weeks left in the regular season.

In an effort to learn from my mistakes, we’re gonna avoid all passing yards props this week. Here’s what I’ve got. All official plays are in bold.

Jordan Addison OVER 35.5 receiving yards. Yeah, Justin Jefferson’s return complicates things and Nick Mullens at quarterback doesn’t help. But Addison had 50-plus yards four of his first five games as a pro. He’s a solid complement even when Jefferson is dealing and Mullens is a veteran enough QB to understand his value. There’s some value to TJ Hockenson at OVER 52.5 yards since he’ll be facing a defense that’s been especially vulnerable to tight ends AND he performed well in last week’s disaster vs. the Raiders.

Sam LaPorta OVER 44.5 receiving yards. The Broncos give up more receiving yards to tight ends than all but one other NFL team. Sure, facing Travis Kelce twice skews that number but LaPorta is vital to the Detroit offense — which is in dire need of a get-right game.

Alec Pierce OVER 27.5 receiving yards. I’m calling on Pierce to hit this on one shot. The Steelers’ deep ball defense is a deficiency and opponents have taken advantage of that to a seventh-highest average target distance (8.7 yards downfield). He’s had three games against the top six teams and had at least 30 receiving yards against two of them (only missing last week vs. the Bengals). Pair this with Gardner Minshew longest completion OVER 35.5 yards.

Amari Cooper OVER 54.5 receiving yards. Joe Flacco loves him. 14 targets last week.

Isaiah Likely OVER 35.5 receiving yards. 13 targets, 126 receiving yards his last two games. The Jaguars are a bottom 10 team against opposing tight ends.

Miles Sanders OVER 29.5 rushing yards. He’s played at least 57 percent of the snaps the last three games and incorporating him in the offense, for better or worse, seems like a key factor for the post-Frank Reich coaching staff.

Rico Dowdle OVER 15.5 rushing yards. This is a low number for a guy with decent usage. The Bills rank 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry (4.7)

Last week: 4-5 (.444)
Season to date: 51-57 (.472)

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

These are the bets I like … just not enough to officially include in the section above.

  • Kyle Pitts UNDER 39.5 receiving yards. Pitts’ targets the last four weeks: six, eight, two five. That’s encouraging, but he’s still clearly the third option in Arthur Smith’s offense and now faces the league’s second-stingiest defense against tight ends.
  • Brandon Aiyuk OVER 65.5 receiving yards. The Cardinals have one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL. An efficient passer with an MVP case to build should be able to take advantage of that.
  • Terry McLaurin UNDER 58.5 receiving yards. McLaurin disappears for long stretches in Sam Howell’s offense. Can he hit 60 yards while only being targeted for a couple quarters?

Last week: 2-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 27-25 (.519)

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