There’s not much going on in the NFL world right now, but the demand for content never goes away. Recent topics of discussion have ranged from the inane — an AI-generated photo of Joe Burrow with a perm that fooled far too many people — to the mundane.  But one worth digging into a little more is the current state of the wide receiver market.

Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio wrote an article headlined: “Will the receiver market go the way of the running back market?” Florio points out the number of receivers still waiting for lucrative contract extensions and wonders if the supply of talented wideouts will impact the demand, just like it did for running backs. 

Florio’s not the only one asking the question, or even the first one. Former NFL GM Randy Mueller, who has carved out a second career as a commentator, recently wrote an article for The Athletic titled: “Has the NFL’s wide receiver market reached a breaking point?” Fellow Athletic writer Robert Mays asked in a recent video “Is the wide receiver market about to crash?” Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer has mentioned in his columns for years that the people he talks to in NFL circles think the way the passing game is emphasized at the lower levels of football, like 7-on-7 camps and college spread offenses, has increased the supply of quality receivers entering the league — and that in the long run, it could make the position more replaceable. 

It is true the quality of receivers entering the league seems to have improved. Here’s a table tracking how many receivers have been drafted in the top ten picks, the first round, and the first two days of the draft over the past decade. This is a proxy for how talented the NFL thinks the incoming class of receivers is: 

If you took a rolling five-year average of the number of receivers drafted in the first three rounds, it would have increased every single year from 2019 to now. It’s understandable why this increased supply has led to speculation about whether the demand for wideouts will ultimately be impacted. If it’s easier to find quality receivers, you’d expect teams to change how they handle the position, particularly when it comes time to shell out money on long-term extensions or in free agency. 

The problem is reality has not matched projection so far. And I think there are good reasons to believe the demand for receivers is not going to slack off any time soon. 

The WR Market Is Still Booming In 2022, the market for wide receivers exploded. In February of that year, there were four receivers who made more than $20 million a year. By August, that number was 14 — and that didn’t include a massive deal for Jaguars WR Christian Kirk that set Twitter abuzz back when it was a functioning social media platform. 

I noted in an analysis article that year that not only had receiver contracts grown with the salary cap, but teams were devoting a higher percentage of their salary cap to wide receivers. That’s backed up by data from Jason Fitzgerald with Over The Cap. The salary cap has grown by 92 percent over the past decade, while the top of the receiver market has grown by 109 percent. Per OTC, out of the top 20 receiver contracts ranked by percentage of the salary cap, 10 of them have been signed in the last three years. 

Teams are clearly putting more of a value on the position. Today, there are 19 receivers who have passed the $20 million a year watermark, and the market is still growing. Two wideouts — Eagles WR A.J. Brown and Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown — pushed past the $30 million per year barrier. 

(Technically Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill already hit $30 million a year but that factors in a balloon year on the end of his contract that was designed to artificially inflate his average. It’s money he will never see.) Other wideouts who signed notable deals include Eagles WR DeVonta Smith, Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr., Titans WR Calvin Ridley, Buccaneers WR Mike Evans, Browns WR Jerry Jeudy, Jaguars WR Gabriel Davis, and Falcons WR Darnell Mooney. Literally while I was writing this article, Texans WR Nico Collins signed a deal worth more than $24 million a year. At nearly every level, the receiver market either made gains or remained robust this off-season. 

Brown and St. Brown not only topped Hill but did so on contracts that aren’t inflated to nearly the same degree. Brown had multiple years remaining on the extension he signed with the Eagles as a part of the trade in 2022, but got significant guarantees and a better average annual salary. St. Brown got practical guarantees through three years, and while the deal is slightly backloaded it does not contain a glaring balloon year. Both moved the market forward. 

Smith got rolling guarantees on his deal that essentially work out to four years of security, and at $25 million a year he’s paid more in terms of average annual salary than all but five wideouts. It should also be noted that Philadelphia did this deal along with a raise for Brown, proving that teams can pay two star receivers and a franchise quarterback if they really want. The Eagles did this by extending Smith early, as they had two years of contract control left on his rookie contract and the extension is for three more years on top of that. 

Ridley sparked a bidding war after all and ended up with a massive contract even though he’s already 29 years old. The deal was for four years and $92 million, which works out to $23 million a year. It’s the rare contract that’s actually better in the short term, as the Titans have an out after two years and a little over $51 million. 

Jeudy signed a deal worth $17 million a year and $41 million guaranteed despite never reaching 1,000 yards in a season. That’s more than any running back has signed for — ever. While the Browns took a leap of faith with this contract, especially with the guarantees which run for three years, the average salary is just what a quality No. 2 receiver costs these days. Even average starters like Davis and Mooney got deals over eight figures as free agents. Both signed for $13 million a year with two years of guarantees. That’s Jonathan Taylor or Saquon Barkley money if you convert it to running back dollars. 

All of these receivers cashed in this off-season despite this being viewed as an outstanding class for wide receivers, even in the context of the stronger-than-usual batches over the past few years. We haven’t even mentioned the Texans’ trade for WR Stefon Diggs. Houston gave up a second-round pick in 2025 and agreed to chop the remaining three years off Diggs’ contract, giving him a chance at unrestricted free agency after he plays out this season and makes over $22 million. They did this despite already having Collins and Tank Dell on the roster, both of whom looked like future stars in 2023. Collins had nearly 1,300 yards receiving and eight touchdowns while Dell was on pace to top 1,000 yards as a rookie and scored seven times in 11 games before a season-ending injury. 

Why Is The NFL Valuing Receivers So Highly? As you can see, the demand for receivers continues to remain high. There are a lot of reasons for this. Compared to running back specifically, there are some key structural differences. While teams need multiple backs to deploy a committee approach and keep everyone fresh and healthy, there’s usually only one running back on the field at a time. Conversely, the majority of plays run by NFL offenses are in three-receiver formations. 

That essentially triples the demand. The No. 3 running back has to play special teams to justify their spot on the…

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