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Assessing the NFL Playoff and Super Bowl likelihood of each team heading into Week 13

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There are some familiar franchises atop the standings in the AFC and NFC entering Week 13, but a few teams picked in the preseason to make deep playoff runs are now desperately scrambling just to get into the playoffs. Entering Week 13, no team has clinched a playoff berth and no team has been eliminated from contention – mathematically, at least. With six teams at 8-3, and a logjam of Wild Card contenders with 6-5 and 5-6 records, there’s going to be plenty of movement in the standings in the coming weeks. To determine each team’s composite playoff chances, we averaged playoff projections from Pro Football Focus and New York Times, as each model had widely varying outlooks for certain teams. Let’s look at every franchise’s current playoff and Super Bowl chances, starting with the teams already looking ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft.

  1. Cardinals (2-10): 0.05% playoff chance
  2. Patriots (2-9): 0.065% playoff chance
  3. Panthers (1-10): 0.1% playoff chance
  4. Commanders (4-8): 0.525% playoff chance
  5. Giants (4-8): 1.63% playoff chance
  6. Titans (4-7): 1.68% playoff chance
  7. Jets (4-8): 1.73% playoff chance
  8. Raiders (5-7): 2.5% playoff chance
  9. Bears (4-8): 2.62% playoff chance

AP Photo/Matt York

28. Giants (4-8): 1.63% playoff chance

27. Titans (4-7): 1.68% playoff chance

26. Jets (4-8): 1.73% playoff chance

25. Raiders (5-7): 2.5% playoff chance

24. Bears (4-8): 2.62% playoff chance

  1. Texans (5-6): 6.25% playoff chance
  2. Jets (6-5): 7.33% playoff chance
  3. Bills (8-3): 19.44% playoff chance
  4. Raiders (8-3): 20.03% playoff chance
  5. Bengals (7-4): 30.04% playoff chance
  6. Titans (8-3): 35.21% playoff chance
  7. Chargers (7-4): 42.15% playoff chance
  8. Ravens (7-3): 42.57% playoff chance
  9. Steelers (6-4): 46.07% playoff chance
  10. Browns (6-5): 46.95% playoff chance
  11. Patriots (7-4): 48.06% playoff chance
  12. Colts (6-5): 53.43% playoff chance
  13. Chiefs (7-4): 59.785% playoff chance
  14. Broncos (6-5): 68.925% playoff chance
  15. Jaguars (7-5): 76.28% playoff chance
  16. Texans (7-4): 96.64% playoff chance
  17. Titans (8-3): 96.9% playoff chance
  18. Commanders (10-4): 97.615% playoff chance
  19. Cowboys (9-3): 98.37% playoff chance
  20. Rams (10-3): 98.745% playoff chance
  21. Packers (10-3): 98.9% playoff chance
  22. Buccaneers (10-3): 99.415% playoff chance
  23. Cardinals (10-3): 99.75% playoff chance


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