The good news is my official picks turned up a third straight profitable round in Week 13. The bad news is it was only by a single bet, keeping my streak of roughly coin-flip results alive.
Will Levis’s overtime drive and Rhamondre Stevenson’s injury added a couple bad beats to a 4-3 week that’s left me languishing under .500 for the year.
Justin Fields UNDER 194.5 passing yards. He’s only once hit this number against the Detroit Lions and, given the massive reliance on screen passes the last time we saw him, probably won’t in Week 14.
Will Levis UNDER 211.5 passing yards. He’s only hit this number once in the past four games and needed overtime to get there. Teams have enough tape on him now to limit his aerial attack.
Jordan Love OVER 225.5 passing yards. OK cool, time to ride this train until it derails.
Rachaad White OVER 22.5 receiving yards. A quiet couple games has moved this total back into reasonable territory. He’s been one of Baker Mayfield’s huckleberries, averaging four-plus targets and 32 receiving yards per game. Atlanta is stingy against running backs in the passing game, but the Bucs don’t have many other reliable options outside their top two wideouts.
Isaiah Likely OVER 33.5 receiving yards. Los Angeles gives up the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends in 2023. Likely’s snap share has been frustrating given the absence of Mark Andrews in Baltimore, but he still had six targets his last game.
Chris Olave OVER 69.5 receiving yards. Jameis Winston seems to value Olave’s presence more than Derek Carr, but this is a number he can hit even if it’s Taysom Hill lobbing passes his way.
DK Metcalf UNDER 60.5 receiving yards. Metcalf has the chops to make this bet look stupid with a single catch. But after starting his career on fire against the 49ers (312 receiving yards against them his first three matchups) he’s averaged just under 45 yards per game in his last six games against San Francisco.
Rashee Rice OVER 51.5 receiving yards. The Bills’ tackling at the second level has been a problem since losing Matt Milano for the year. Rice is one of the best run-after-catch players in the league and has been getting more and more looks as Patrick Mahomes’ top short-range wideout.
CJ Stroud OVER 9.5 rushing yards. The Jets generate a lot of pressure, which should create the opportunity for a few chain-moving scrambles. Stroud had four official carries in each of his last two games.
Last week: 4-3 (.571)
Season to date: 47-52 (.475)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
These are the bets I like … just not enough to officially include in the section above.
- Austin Ekeler OVER 49.5 rushing yards. Yes, I saw last week’s game too. But the Broncos give up more rushing yards per game to opposing running backs than anyone in the league. Even a diminished Ekeler should be able to get here.
- Josh Jacobs UNDER 71.5 rushing yards. The Vikings are stingy against the run (3.7 yards per carry allowed) and Jacobs, despite his recent rise and the fact he’s coming off a bye, may struggle to find space.
Last week: 1-2 (.333)
Season to date: 25-25 (.500)
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